That remains to be seen. I've had some friends begin to ask me about helping them install Linux. So far, one has even tried it. I've heard similar stories from my fellow FOSS advocates. Anecdotal evidence gives us hope. Are we, the FOSS users, and the FOSS Community at large, ready for a major influx? Are we ready for even a minor influx?
Not entirely, I believe.
When I first began exploring Linux some years ago, I was in a position to buy a few of those fat manuals and guide books that contained a CD or two. They were interesting, but I really knew next to nothing about computers in the first place. Like most new users back then, I started with RedHat, which was in it's 5.x series of releases. After two bad starts, I stumbled across Linux for Dummies by Jon "maddog" Hall. I still have that, and the RH 5.2 CD that came with it.
Were it not for the abbreviated and simplified instructions in that book, I would have never been able actually to use Linux. The humorous style invited me to read the whole thing, and the simplified setup of RedHat put it all within my reach. Eventually, I tired of RedHat and sampled a few other distributions of Linux. Most recently, I've been working with FreeBSD. The reason for jumping around was that it was all new, and I wanted to see what was out there. More recently, I've been searching for something I could stay with for the long haul. My last two articles, "Babe in the Woods" and "Learning to Walk" described my fumbling discovery of that.
Like most people, I went online occasionally to seek advice on various aspects of Linux. There was a wealth of documentation, even in my early days with Linux, but it wasn't always easy to find. Too often it was not easy to read. When I dared to ask on some forum, at least half the time I got the proverbial "RTFM" from the gurus. Having worked in education in various capacities since 1989, I knew this was the complete opposite of what was asked, and what was needed. I was not targeted for special treatment; every clueless newbie got that. Very few gurus are so affable in writing as Jon Hall.
I went so far as attempting a discussion of that issue in itself. The best I got was the admission that people who really understood computers best were often so expert at them precisely because they were so poor at dealing with people. For me, this was one of life's ultimate paradoxes: computers were created to make life easier for people. To really delve into the guts of computing electronics and coding seemed to require a general dislike for those who were most likely to pay enough money to enable the delving.
The pure hobbyists, of course, can do as they please. Yet it seems most of those who contribute to the FOSS code output are professionally connected to computers in some way, or at least students with plans to be. There is a vast subculture of insiders whose standard joke is depicting themselves as God reaching out to give life to dead users, desperately hoping they'll get a clue.
Therein lies the source of conflict: an exclusive subculture, a different world, almost a separate life-form. Gurus and techies hold a distinctly high intelligence, and they know it. What they may not easily understand is that there are different intelligences, as it were. It's only natural that most of us see the world through our own brand of tunnel-vision, and computer experts are no different. They know how they got their elite status, and naturally assume everyone must get there the same route. Those who cannot seem inferior, and are often accused of not trying hard enough.
Just recently, I ran into that mindset again, while seeking advice on my migration to FreeBSD. A particular guru was expounding on how all gurus got there by reading massive volumes of manpages, FAQs, handbooks, etc. By experimenting repeatedly based on that information, they gained a vast knowledge that enabled them to do whatever they needed to do. In his mind, it was some sort of sacrilige to "hold someone's hand" in the learning process. One simply could not learn FreeBSD that way. Nor could one be allowed to aspire to anything less than becoming a guru like him. There was no room for simple, ordinary users in his world.
Of course, it never matters to such gurus that manpages are written by their fellow techies, in their secret techie language, and address all manner of options the average user will never use, and do not need to know. He wasn't willing to let users be simply users; it was all or nothing. It's been my experience that about 1 in 4 manpages are readable to average users. About 1 in 10 are actually well written and engaging. The FAQs are usually better, but often miss the very issues regular home users face. HOWTOs, generally absent outside specific Linux applications, are about evenly divided between user-friendly and too technical, as are handbooks.
There are plenty of intelligent people facing computer screens who will never learn anything significant if they have to start with manpages. The handful of clueful writers like Jon Hall will continue to make good money, because there are so few of them. This will continue to be the case as long as potential technical writers are driven away by such dismissive responses as "RTFM." Not everyone learns that way. Were it not for a good amount of hand-holding, how many toddlers would still be crawlers?
On the one hand, I appeal to the gurus to lighten up. Just as no two pieces of hardware or software work alike, so it is with people. Frankly, most people are unlikely to learn the way gurus did. Further, it is enough that they become reasonably proficient. Let them experience success early on, so they are encouraged to learn more complicated tasks. If you cannot teach, then at least keep a catalogue of documents and/or links which provide simple instructions for common tasks. An excellent example is "Consistent BackSpace and Delete Configuration" a page maintained by Anne Baretta.
On the other hand, I appeal to writers and teachers to publish their experiences with FOSS. Tell the world, and do it with an aim to reach varied levels of user. If you can communicate, volunteer your talents to produce the documentation for various projects. Let the techies write code, and maybe the manpages. Apply your communication skills for the user-level materials many projects lack entirely. Here and there on the web, and in printed books, are good guides that reach out to the average user. They address common issues and don't assume everyone is setting up a fifty-plus terminal network, with a separate firewall router, mail server, print server, and so on. It is the home user we need to capture.
Why? Because if we do not, there will continue to be a proliferation of insecure boxes on the web, violating accepted standards because market share breeds arrogance. It is these same insecure machines that are just waiting to be taken over by crackers, script kiddies, and outright criminal elements.
Today, we stand on the verge of losing the Internet as we know it. There is immense pressure on government officials in every nation with so much as electricity. I, for one, do not trust any government agency to regulate the Electronic Commons in my best interest. It's quite likely that, for their convenience, they would outlaw FOSS as something that can't be governed. It's already been tried at least once in the US. Nightmare visions are easy to conjure, because they are so close to reality. At the very least, we'll continue to see tons of spam, DDoS attacks, hardware increasingly MS-specific, all making the Internet increasingly hostile to us.
We need the home users, the "soccer moms," as well as the corporate types. Clueless they may be when they come to us, but it's up to us the change that. "RTFM" won't do it for most of them. I believe we are at a crossroads, and we cannot any longer keep the rabble out. We have to change the balance of power; the market share is ours to take. It's in our best interest in the FOSS community to cut a wide path through the walls that insulate us, and welcome the masses, or we will perish.