If you have been paying as close attention as I have been to the current and near future of Microsoft, the Windows operating system, and Microsoft's most recent purchases, then you are likely to come to the following conclusion. If you haven't, then read on.
Microsoft has been working on a new version of Windows called “Longhorn”. This version will not be backwards compatible with Windows XP.
Most people who just read that will probably think “Thank God, as Windows has needed to be redone for ages” and this is exactly the reason why Microsoft is changing their code base. There will be no more C drive, D drive or A drive. The whole operating system will be database driven, and it looks as if at least the GDI (Graphical Device Interface) layer will be based on Microsoft's .NET Platform. Furthermore, it will incorporate a new technology called “Trusted Computing”, where you no longer have control of your own PC.
So you may be asking, “What about all of those existing Windows programs? They won't run anymore?” and the answer is “Absolutely Correct!”. Common sense dictates that any Win32-based software will not run natively on Longhorn, since virtually 100% of all Win32 based software requires disk access. I would also hazzard a guess that all Longhorn based programs will need to be written in a .NET compatible language, such as VB.NET or C#. I'm sure that Win32 will be lurking beneath the hood on Longhorn, but it will be buried far deeper than the end user will ever be able to touch, as it is a security, as well as a development, nightmare.
So what will Microsoft do to ensure a smooth transition? That's where the purchase of Connectix's VirtualPC software comes in. Microsoft purchased VirtualPC from Connectix, and hired a bunch of the VirtualPC developers, in February of this year. Why? Because Longhorn will need to emulate Win32 for those thousands of Windows programs that are already out there. That's right, with the next release of Windows (most likely in 2005), you will need to run your existing Windows based software in emulation mode.
Just like if you were running VMWare or Win4Lin on Linux, or like if you are using CodeWeaver's Crossover Office/Plugin products.
There will be a bazillion CIO's asking themselves “Why should I spend thousands of dollars on multiple copies of Longhorn and still have to run all of our programs in emulation mode, when I can get Linux, avoid the massive vendor lock-in and associated costs, and run all of our programs in emulation mode while we port them to run natively?” And if they aren't asking themselves that, then we, the Linux community, have not helped them to reach that conclusion. Once they understand what they have to gain, it's just a simple download, and they have what they'll need to run all of their existing software as well as have access to some of the best software on the planet.
But there's a catch.
These next 2 years are going to be critical for Microsoft. They absolutely, positively need their .NET platform to take hold of the developer community. Once developers choose .NET, they will be locked in, and Longhorn will be their only option. This means that Microsoft will be able to help themselves to the pocket books of the corporations that these developers work for, and with the economy the way it is, this just means fewer jobs will be available as corporations spend their money on software instead of people. This is bad for everyone except Microsoft.
For developers who steadfastly deny .NET, they could be protecting their very jobs, as well as creating new jobs once the money that is spent on software is back in the hands of their employers.
The WINE project (A recursive acronym that means “WINE IS NOT AN EMULATOR”) offers a clear upgrade path from Windows to Linux. With it, developers can easily “port” their applications to Linux, usually without having to rewrite any code at all, and get native processor speed. You can run a ton of Windows based software, including Office 2000, Photoshop, Quicken, and many Windows-based plugins. This is not in “the future”, this is right now. It's simply amazing what you can do with WINE. Imagine how good this technology will be 2 years from now — now you have an idea of how much trouble Microsoft is in if .NET doesn't take the Windows developer community hostage, as Microsoft hopes it will.
So to all of the developers that are reading this article:
Please, whatever you do, stay away from .NET. It is nothing but more proprietary lock-in from the biggest proprietary software company in the world. If you are working at a company that is considering using .NET, do everything you can to keep away them from it. Your employers will thank you in a couple of years, when they get to make a simple decision:
Do we want more proprietary lock-in or do we want choice? The decision should be clear.