[OFB Cafe] Bio Fuels

[Timothy Butler]

>>
>> 	The problem is this is a post hoc argument.
>
> ??  Now you, perhaps, need to do remedial logic.  It's not a post hoc
> argument, it's a statistical argument.  Yes, I've only shown you two
> instances, but we can trade numbers all week, and you'll still see a  
> steady
> (and huge) upward trend in oil company stock prices and profits  
> since the
> Iraq war began.

	Well, that doesn't eliminate post hoc. My point is that just because  
the price rose after the Iraq war does not suggest any form of  
causation.

	Now, if you show me that ExxonMobil now has tripled its realized oil  
production or something like that, and that this has come from Iraq,  
I'll grant you your argument. If you are merely suggesting the  
potential for increased oil has boosted the stock that much, I'm  
dubious.

>
>
>> 	Exxon Mobil's stock price
>> is not likely to have jumped by that much because of Iraq.  
>> Actually, I
>> doubt it would have moved much at all because of Iraq.
>
> Speculate about _anything_ that could make it move that much.

	1.) Realized savings from the mega mergers that formed ExxonMobil,  
ConocoPhilips, BPAmoco, etc.
	2.) Increased oil consumption.
	3.) A crazily bullish market.

	-Tim

---
Timothy R. Butler | "Not  every end  is the  goal.  The end  of a
Editor, OfB.biz   | melody is not its goal,  and yet if  a melody
tbutler at ofb.biz   | has not  reached its end , it has not reached
timothybutler.us  | its goal."
                                            -- Friedrich Nietzsche