[OFB Cafe] Bio Fuels

[Derek Broughton]

On July 22, 2008 13:58:37 Timothy Butler wrote:
> >> 	The problem is this is a post hoc argument.
> >
> > ??  Now you, perhaps, need to do remedial logic.  It's not a post hoc
> > argument, it's a statistical argument.  Yes, I've only shown you two
> > instances, but we can trade numbers all week, and you'll still see a
> > steady
> > (and huge) upward trend in oil company stock prices and profits
> > since the Iraq war began.
>
> 	Well, that doesn't eliminate post hoc. My point is that just because
> the price rose after the Iraq war does not suggest any form of
> causation.

"Just because" certainly doesn't prove anything.  otoh, it very 
strongly "suggests".  Which _other_ causal factors do you want to bring into 
it?  I challenge you to show any other factors that can explain such an 
increase in the value of oil companies.
>
> 	Now, if you show me that ExxonMobil now has tripled its realized oil
> production or something like that, and that this has come from Iraq,
> I'll grant you your argument. 

If I could show that, I'd have just _demolished_ my argument.  It's absolutely 
not about _producing_ oil, it's about controlling the production of oil.  If 
they were producing more, oil wouldn't be continually pushing the $150/barrel 
mark, and oil companies wouldn't be worth three times what they were 5 years 
ago.

> If you are merely suggesting the 
> potential for increased oil has boosted the stock that much, I'm
> dubious.

No, I'm saying that American Oil is ensuring that Iraq doesn't sell any oil 
except through them.

> >> 	Exxon Mobil's stock price
> >> is not likely to have jumped by that much because of Iraq.
> >> Actually, I
> >> doubt it would have moved much at all because of Iraq.
> >
> > Speculate about _anything_ that could make it move that much.
>
> 	1.) Realized savings from the mega mergers that formed ExxonMobil,
> ConocoPhilips, BPAmoco, etc.

Which all took place before the war (the biggest being _long_ before), and 
just happened to make them profitable after the Iraq war?  I like coincidence 
even better than post hoc arguments.

> 	2.) Increased oil consumption.

Consumption has been increasing ever since the _last_ oil price bubble.  So 
why did the big increase in value of oil companies start just start after the 
Iraq war?

> 	3.) A crazily bullish market.

What "crazily bullish market"?  The Dow Jones average in the same period has 
merely gone from 10,100 to 11,500.   _MY_ investments certainly haven't done 
anything in that time, but then I don't invest in Big Oil.  Energy stocks are 
bullish.  Otherwise, despite the assurances of your politicians, you're in a 
recession.
-- 
derek