[OFB Cafe] Bio Fuels

[Derek Broughton]

On July 22, 2008 00:57:00 Timothy Butler wrote:
> > Pick an oil company - or a contractor like Haliburton.  In February
> > of 2002,
> > Haliburton stock was worth $6.  Now it's worth almost $50.
> >
> > Exxon Mobil has gone from $32 to $90 in the same period.
>
> 	The problem is this is a post hoc argument.

??  Now you, perhaps, need to do remedial logic.  It's not a post hoc 
argument, it's a statistical argument.  Yes, I've only shown you two 
instances, but we can trade numbers all week, and you'll still see a steady 
(and huge) upward trend in oil company stock prices and profits since the 
Iraq war began.

> 	Exxon Mobil's stock price 
> is not likely to have jumped by that much because of Iraq. Actually, I
> doubt it would have moved much at all because of Iraq.

Speculate about _anything_ that could make it move that much.  I find it 
_very_ likely it has moved that much because of the Iraq war.  Perhaps, 
indeed, not because of any action Exxon Mobil is taking directly in Iraq, but 
the point is that this war is good for ALL the oil industry.

> 	I can't really say much, I've not done a serious study of this. But,
> everything I've read in recent times seems to be talking about the oil
> companies being contracted for things other than selling oil...

Which makes not the slightest difference to the way Iraq has been good for Big 
Oil.
-- 
derek