[OFB Cafe] PD: Obamafields and McCains (was Re: Who's Still on Here?)

[Timothy Butler]

> This should get things going:
>
> So how about that Obama? He's kicking some pretty serious butt, up
> about 6 points over McBush and we (the US, that is) have barely
> entered the general election!
> I personally can't wait to see him embarrass McBush during the first
> debate....

	Ok, I'll bite, "for the good of the list" -- not because I like to  
debate or anything. ;-)

	My sense is that McCain will have a good chance against Obama in  
debating. Obama is a brilliant speech giver on the teleprompter, but  
his debating skills are not exactly stellar. McCain isn't exactly a  
star debater either, but I'd say he's better than Obama. Clinton was  
vastly better than Obama at debating. I'm still sad at the loss of  
Huckabee.

	Poll wise, I think things aren't too helpful just yet. Note this time  
in 2004: http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/jun/jun11.html .

	And today: http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jun11.html

	(In case anyone doesn't know, I get extra Geek cred for linking to  
that particular site, that's the site of AST.)

	To me, Obama is performing poorly. It's a Democratic year. GOP  
identification is in the tubes, the administration is polling  
terribly, etc. If at this time in 2004, Kerry could be doing that well  
against Bush, theoretically Mr. Rockstar should be doing at least as  
well against Mr. AARP.

	Obama continues to have major issues however:
	- He doesn't speak well off the cuff (e.g. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxBX8sz3tO 
  or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbpWonUzlrc )
	- His big campaigning point has been bipartisanship, but he's a  
relatively staunch partisan, especially against McCain, THE best known  
maverick.
	- He keeps having unfortunate associations (Rezko is back in the news  
and apparently may start naming names to avoid a life sentence...)
	- He has a relatively unremarkable political history, save for the  
fact that he has risen to the national level so fast.
	- He seems to have no loyalty -- he's throws people under the bus  
when it works for him -- his grandma, for example.
	- With regards to the whole Rev. Wright thing, he was either dumb (he  
didn't know what was going on for twenty years even while Wright  
inspired Obama's book, guided his beliefs, etc.!?!) or he has a  
radical streak he does not wish to admit to. Neither looks good.

	If I were a Democrat, I would have been pushing really hard for Sen.  
Clinton. I think she would have been unstoppable in November.

	-Tim


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Timothy R. Butler | "He that has and a little tiny wit—
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